Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing COSMOS Chemical Co., Ltd. (300856.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.43 - $61.26$57.41
Multi-Stage$9.72 - $10.62$10.16
Blended Fair Value$33.79
Current Price$13.15
Upside156.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS70.00%0.00%1.120.410.080.040.060.080.050.060.120.00
YoY Growth--171.63%400.00%100.00%-26.20%-29.17%45.90%-4.23%-52.65%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.47%1.40%0.43%0.42%0.46%0.75%0.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.2515.789.47
Cash Retained (M)20.7120.7120.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.25-15.78-9.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.544.9311.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.79409.79409.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.43$57.41$61.26
Upside / Downside131.44%336.60%365.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.23134.44143.18152.49162.40172.95178.14
Payout Ratio83.60%84.88%86.16%87.44%88.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.53114.11123.36133.33144.08155.66164.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.28107.29108.30
Year 2 PV (M)107.02109.06111.12
Year 3 PV (M)107.74110.83113.98
Year 4 PV (M)108.44112.61116.90
Year 5 PV (M)109.12114.39119.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,443.873,610.213,782.91
Equity Value (M)3,982.474,164.394,353.07
Shares Outstanding (M)409.79409.79409.79
Fair Value$9.72$10.16$10.62
Upside / Downside-26.10%-22.72%-19.22%

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