Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Sf Oilless Bearing Co.,Ltd. (300817.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.72 - $58.58$54.90
Multi-Stage$14.57 - $15.96$15.25
Blended Fair Value$35.07
Current Price$20.68
Upside69.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.26%15.33%0.210.180.160.130.100.090.080.060.040.05
YoY Growth--14.03%15.94%19.26%36.11%3.32%11.59%40.57%49.61%-13.77%-7.20%
Dividend Yield--0.82%1.74%1.38%1.29%0.95%0.84%0.55%0.39%0.00%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.868.044.82
Cash Retained (M)19.8819.8819.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.86-8.04-4.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.0211.8415.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)218.29218.29218.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate5.14%5.14%5.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.72$54.90$58.58
Upside / Downside140.42%165.46%183.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.3068.4872.9377.6782.7288.0990.74
Payout Ratio69.08%73.27%77.45%81.63%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.4250.1756.4863.4070.9979.2883.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.14%5.14%5.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.2747.7248.17
Year 2 PV (M)50.1451.1052.06
Year 3 PV (M)53.0354.5656.11
Year 4 PV (M)55.9458.0960.31
Year 5 PV (M)58.8761.7164.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,914.913,055.703,201.88
Equity Value (M)3,180.173,328.883,483.19
Shares Outstanding (M)218.29218.29218.29
Fair Value$14.57$15.25$15.96
Upside / Downside-29.55%-26.26%-22.84%

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