Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co., Ltd. (300785.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.06 - $4.44$3.73
Multi-Stage$4.61 - $5.05$4.83
Blended Fair Value$4.28
Current Price$38.50
Upside-88.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.89%0.00%0.160.160.330.230.180.150.110.030.030.00
YoY Growth--0.30%-52.98%48.49%27.15%17.39%40.53%266.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.72%1.01%0.93%0.50%0.36%0.88%0.24%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9810.616.37
Cash Retained (M)52.2552.2552.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.98-10.61-6.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.2741.6445.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)204.75204.75204.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-1.11%-0.11%0.89%
Fair Value$3.06$3.73$4.44
Upside / Downside-92.05%-90.31%-88.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.8884.7984.7084.6184.5184.4286.95
Payout Ratio38.45%48.76%59.07%69.38%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.6441.3450.0358.7067.3575.9880.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-1.11%-0.11%0.89%
Year 1 PV (M)37.3437.7238.10
Year 2 PV (M)40.8241.6542.48
Year 3 PV (M)43.2544.5845.93
Year 4 PV (M)44.8246.6648.56
Year 5 PV (M)45.6748.0350.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)731.76769.52808.82
Equity Value (M)943.67988.151,034.37
Shares Outstanding (M)204.75204.75204.75
Fair Value$4.61$4.83$5.05
Upside / Downside-88.03%-87.46%-86.88%

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