Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xi'an Triangle Defense Co.,Ltd (300775.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.16 - $97.26$45.13
Multi-Stage$17.02 - $18.62$17.80
Blended Fair Value$31.47
Current Price$24.77
Upside27.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.39%17.29%0.230.120.090.070.090.090.000.000.010.03
YoY Growth--90.86%35.09%21.82%-17.00%1.10%0.00%-100.00%-93.30%-80.38%-40.38%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.50%0.26%0.18%0.32%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)532.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)482.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.5266.5839.95
Cash Retained (M)482.96482.96482.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.52-66.58-39.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.43416.38443.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)555.21555.21555.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.16$45.13$97.26
Upside / Downside9.66%82.21%292.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)532.62567.24604.11643.38685.20729.73751.63
Payout Ratio9.32%25.46%41.59%57.73%73.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.66144.42251.28371.42506.12656.76695.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.88133.13134.38
Year 2 PV (M)209.53213.52217.55
Year 3 PV (M)282.82290.94299.22
Year 4 PV (M)351.93365.46379.38
Year 5 PV (M)417.02437.16458.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,054.828,443.878,847.81
Equity Value (M)9,448.009,884.0910,336.41
Shares Outstanding (M)555.21555.21555.21
Fair Value$17.02$17.80$18.62
Upside / Downside-31.30%-28.13%-24.84%

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