Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Changsheng Sliding Bearings Co., Ltd. (300718.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.71 - $41.82$26.09
Multi-Stage$12.95 - $14.13$13.53
Blended Fair Value$19.81
Current Price$90.54
Upside-78.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.06%17.07%0.410.530.360.340.150.230.130.080.190.07
YoY Growth---22.29%47.62%6.78%129.51%-37.14%87.30%48.00%-54.67%174.42%-20.67%
Dividend Yield--0.49%3.12%2.06%2.46%1.20%1.86%1.05%0.59%2.07%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)247.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.5430.9618.58
Cash Retained (M)125.85125.85125.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.54-30.96-18.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.3194.89107.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)295.63295.63295.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.71$26.09$41.82
Upside / Downside-80.44%-71.18%-53.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)247.72263.82280.97299.23318.68339.39349.57
Payout Ratio49.19%57.36%65.52%73.68%81.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.86151.31184.08220.47260.80305.45323.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)136.90138.20139.49
Year 2 PV (M)150.68153.55156.44
Year 3 PV (M)163.27167.95172.73
Year 4 PV (M)174.74181.46188.37
Year 5 PV (M)185.16194.10203.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,019.033,164.853,316.25
Equity Value (M)3,829.764,000.104,176.67
Shares Outstanding (M)295.63295.63295.63
Fair Value$12.95$13.53$14.13
Upside / Downside-85.69%-85.06%-84.40%

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