Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GHT Co.,Ltd (300711.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.20 - $37.74$17.08
Multi-Stage$6.70 - $7.31$7.00
Blended Fair Value$12.04
Current Price$20.73
Upside-41.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.52%-6.82%0.100.070.090.030.020.020.050.110.160.00
YoY Growth--50.00%-27.27%189.47%56.91%22.89%-64.53%-57.31%-32.84%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.50%0.76%0.29%0.18%0.15%0.39%0.69%2.32%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6711.046.63
Cash Retained (M)34.0234.0234.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.67-11.04-6.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.3522.9727.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.13249.13249.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.20$17.08$37.74
Upside / Downside-50.79%-17.58%82.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.3594.10100.21106.73113.66121.05124.68
Payout Ratio61.50%67.20%72.90%78.60%84.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.3463.2373.0583.8995.82108.95115.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)57.7758.3158.86
Year 2 PV (M)60.9762.1363.30
Year 3 PV (M)63.9665.7967.67
Year 4 PV (M)66.7469.3171.95
Year 5 PV (M)69.3372.6776.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,350.441,415.671,483.39
Equity Value (M)1,669.201,743.891,821.32
Shares Outstanding (M)249.13249.13249.13
Fair Value$6.70$7.00$7.31
Upside / Downside-67.68%-66.23%-64.73%

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