Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Jinling Sports Equipment Co.,Ltd. (300651.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.10 - $3.15$2.60
Multi-Stage$3.64 - $4.00$3.82
Blended Fair Value$3.21
Current Price$22.31
Upside-85.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.71%20.69%0.140.100.080.080.080.130.030.020.070.01
YoY Growth--49.37%20.00%0.00%0.00%-39.29%397.33%44.72%-74.06%886.30%-67.26%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.62%0.34%0.24%0.19%0.52%0.07%0.08%0.61%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.065.043.02
Cash Retained (M)13.5313.5313.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.06-5.04-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.488.5010.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)161.56161.56161.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate-1.16%-0.16%0.84%
Fair Value$2.10$2.60$3.15
Upside / Downside-90.59%-88.37%-85.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2840.2240.1540.0940.0339.9641.16
Payout Ratio66.40%71.12%75.84%80.56%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7528.6030.4532.3034.1435.9738.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate-1.16%-0.16%0.84%
Year 1 PV (M)26.1626.4326.69
Year 2 PV (M)25.4826.0026.52
Year 3 PV (M)24.7125.4726.25
Year 4 PV (M)23.8924.8725.89
Year 5 PV (M)23.0324.2125.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)465.62489.65514.67
Equity Value (M)588.89616.64645.46
Shares Outstanding (M)161.56161.56161.56
Fair Value$3.64$3.82$4.00
Upside / Downside-83.66%-82.89%-82.09%

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