Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment CO.,LTD. (300450.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.28 - $25.63$16.40
Multi-Stage$8.03 - $8.78$8.40
Blended Fair Value$12.40
Current Price$62.22
Upside-80.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.86%36.84%0.360.540.500.180.110.180.070.030.050.02
YoY Growth---32.88%7.57%181.47%66.10%-40.77%178.91%86.34%-27.67%118.84%39.95%
Dividend Yield--1.72%2.16%1.24%0.31%0.22%0.77%0.27%0.15%0.36%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)863.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)152.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)711.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.79107.9964.80
Cash Retained (M)711.70711.70711.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.79-107.99-64.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)538.91603.71646.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,557.071,557.071,557.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.28$16.40$25.63
Upside / Downside-81.88%-73.64%-58.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)863.95920.10979.911,043.601,111.441,183.681,219.19
Payout Ratio17.62%32.10%46.57%61.05%75.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)152.24295.33456.37637.11839.411,065.311,127.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)266.80269.33271.86
Year 2 PV (M)372.47379.56386.72
Year 3 PV (M)469.75483.23496.97
Year 4 PV (M)559.12580.63602.74
Year 5 PV (M)641.06672.02704.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,201.0110,693.7211,205.29
Equity Value (M)12,510.2113,078.4913,667.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,557.071,557.071,557.07
Fair Value$8.03$8.40$8.78
Upside / Downside-87.09%-86.50%-85.89%

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