Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Motic (Xiamen) Electric Group Co.,Ltd (300341.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.60 - $5.65$4.54
Multi-Stage$4.18 - $4.58$4.38
Blended Fair Value$4.46
Current Price$18.55
Upside-75.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.53%14.69%0.070.110.070.070.040.070.050.050.050.13
YoY Growth---35.86%53.23%2.09%61.86%-40.03%32.59%9.94%-0.01%-63.29%655.52%
Dividend Yield--0.42%1.08%0.50%0.70%0.48%0.87%0.81%0.69%0.49%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)183.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.6622.9113.75
Cash Retained (M)147.05147.05147.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.66-22.91-13.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.39124.13133.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)517.47517.47517.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Fair Value$3.60$4.54$5.65
Upside / Downside-80.61%-75.53%-69.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)183.30188.61194.08199.70205.49211.44217.78
Payout Ratio19.78%33.82%47.87%61.91%75.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.2563.7992.90123.64156.08190.30201.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)57.4758.0358.60
Year 2 PV (M)75.3976.8878.38
Year 3 PV (M)90.3993.0895.82
Year 4 PV (M)102.80106.90111.11
Year 5 PV (M)112.92118.57124.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,726.251,812.641,902.45
Equity Value (M)2,165.232,266.102,370.80
Shares Outstanding (M)517.47517.47517.47
Fair Value$4.18$4.38$4.58
Upside / Downside-77.44%-76.39%-75.30%

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