Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tangel Culture Co., Ltd. (300148.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.38 - $0.51$0.45
Multi-Stage$0.68 - $0.76$0.72
Blended Fair Value$0.58
Current Price$4.73
Upside-87.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.86%-6.58%0.000.010.010.000.000.000.020.040.020.02
YoY Growth---8.56%-13.19%31.09%99.42%19.23%-88.79%-52.56%73.15%37.12%61.98%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.16%0.15%0.12%0.07%0.05%0.33%0.54%0.13%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.568.475.08
Cash Retained (M)64.8664.8664.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.56-8.47-5.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.3056.3959.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)815.81815.81815.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-6.84%-5.84%-4.84%
Fair Value$0.38$0.45$0.51
Upside / Downside-91.94%-90.51%-89.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67.7963.8460.1156.6053.3050.1951.69
Payout Ratio4.33%21.46%38.60%55.73%72.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.9313.7023.2031.5538.8445.1747.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-6.84%-5.84%-4.84%
Year 1 PV (M)12.3912.5212.65
Year 2 PV (M)18.9719.3819.79
Year 3 PV (M)23.3224.0824.86
Year 4 PV (M)25.9627.1028.27
Year 5 PV (M)27.3128.8030.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)450.51475.22500.99
Equity Value (M)558.46587.10616.93
Shares Outstanding (M)815.81815.81815.81
Fair Value$0.68$0.72$0.76
Upside / Downside-85.53%-84.79%-84.01%

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