Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (300142.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.62 - $1.38$0.90
Multi-Stage$0.48 - $0.52$0.50
Blended Fair Value$0.70
Current Price$11.61
Upside-94.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.83%-13.47%0.030.010.030.050.020.040.000.020.080.10
YoY Growth--104.86%-60.12%-39.85%162.57%-53.80%1,441.83%-87.02%-72.79%-18.46%-11.09%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.08%0.09%0.10%0.04%0.14%0.01%0.10%0.61%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.856.163.69
Cash Retained (M)11.1911.1911.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.85-6.16-3.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.345.037.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,588.601,588.601,588.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$0.62$0.90$1.38
Upside / Downside-94.67%-92.29%-88.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.2452.4555.8559.4963.3567.4769.49
Payout Ratio77.28%79.82%82.37%84.91%87.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.0641.8646.0150.5155.4060.7264.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.7938.1538.51
Year 2 PV (M)37.5038.2138.93
Year 3 PV (M)37.1738.2339.32
Year 4 PV (M)36.8038.2239.68
Year 5 PV (M)36.4238.1740.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)573.04600.72629.46
Equity Value (M)758.72791.71825.90
Shares Outstanding (M)1,588.601,588.601,588.60
Fair Value$0.48$0.50$0.52
Upside / Downside-95.89%-95.71%-95.52%

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