Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ChenGuang Biotech Group Co., Ltd. (300138.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.14 - $135.61$127.09
Multi-Stage$21.28 - $23.29$22.27
Blended Fair Value$74.68
Current Price$13.11
Upside469.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.19%23.37%0.350.000.290.220.190.210.160.090.050.03
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%31.17%16.93%-8.35%31.23%85.39%61.11%55.79%-21.30%
Dividend Yield--3.79%0.00%1.59%1.27%1.30%2.38%2.01%1.05%0.55%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.0541.9125.15
Cash Retained (M)187.42187.42187.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.05-41.91-25.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.36145.51162.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)491.67491.67491.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.14$127.09$135.61
Upside / Downside442.61%869.42%934.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.27357.07380.27404.99431.32459.35473.13
Payout Ratio44.10%53.28%62.46%71.64%80.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.85190.24237.52290.14348.59413.42437.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)177.27178.95180.63
Year 2 PV (M)206.24210.16214.13
Year 3 PV (M)234.75241.49248.35
Year 4 PV (M)262.81272.92283.31
Year 5 PV (M)290.44304.47319.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,291.469,740.2410,206.20
Equity Value (M)10,462.9610,948.2311,451.66
Shares Outstanding (M)491.67491.67491.67
Fair Value$21.28$22.27$23.29
Upside / Downside62.32%69.85%77.66%

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