Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ferrari N.V. (2FE.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$130.74 - $235.45$174.53
Multi-Stage$104.20 - $113.56$108.80
Blended Fair Value$141.66
Current Price$416.10
Upside-65.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.95%0.00%2.461.841.400.901.161.080.740.670.490.00
YoY Growth--33.86%31.70%55.85%-23.07%8.01%44.76%10.93%38.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.47%0.56%0.45%0.65%0.76%0.62%0.69%0.70%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,601.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)531.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,070.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.39200.24120.15
Cash Retained (M)1,070.451,070.451,070.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.39-200.24-120.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)750.06870.20950.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.78178.78178.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.204.875.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.972.972.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.204.875.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.177.848.29
WACC / Discount Rate11.28%11.28%11.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$130.74$174.53$235.45
Upside / Downside-68.58%-58.06%-43.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,601.951,706.071,816.971,935.072,060.852,194.802,260.65
Payout Ratio33.18%44.54%55.91%67.27%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)531.50759.931,015.811,301.751,620.561,975.322,091.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.28%11.28%11.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)676.46682.87689.28
Year 2 PV (M)804.92820.25835.72
Year 3 PV (M)918.19944.55971.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,017.511,056.641,096.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,104.031,157.361,212.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,107.7014,789.1015,496.59
Equity Value (M)18,628.8019,450.7720,302.61
Shares Outstanding (M)178.78178.78178.78
Fair Value$104.20$108.80$113.56
Upside / Downside-74.96%-73.85%-72.71%

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