Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lushang Life Services Co., Ltd. (2376.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.45 - $6.83$5.56
Multi-Stage$9.47 - $10.44$9.94
Blended Fair Value$7.75
Current Price$1.92
Upside303.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%714.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.46%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.118.825.29
Cash Retained (M)65.9565.9565.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.11-8.82-5.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.8457.1360.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.24144.24144.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.45$5.56$6.83
Upside / Downside131.60%189.47%255.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.5469.8369.1368.4467.7667.0869.09
Payout Ratio6.51%23.21%39.90%56.60%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.5916.2127.5938.7449.6760.3763.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15.0515.2015.35
Year 2 PV (M)23.7824.2724.76
Year 3 PV (M)31.0031.9632.94
Year 4 PV (M)36.9038.4340.01
Year 5 PV (M)41.6543.8146.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,217.221,280.601,346.60
Equity Value (M)1,365.601,434.281,505.73
Shares Outstanding (M)144.24144.24144.24
Fair Value$9.47$9.94$10.44
Upside / Downside393.09%417.89%443.69%

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