Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Ceramic Company (2040.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.55 - $8.50$6.93
Multi-Stage$12.43 - $13.65$13.03
Blended Fair Value$9.98
Current Price$32.10
Upside-68.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.431.070.640.000.000.000.541.091.09
YoY Growth---100.00%-59.93%66.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-50.69%0.00%-10.35%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.61%4.26%1.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.59%7.50%5.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.557.224.33
Cash Retained (M)7.917.917.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.55-7.22-4.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.640.693.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.2793.2793.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.55$6.93$8.50
Upside / Downside-82.69%-78.41%-73.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.7557.1756.6056.0355.4754.9256.56
Payout Ratio86.31%87.05%87.79%88.52%89.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.8449.7649.6849.6049.5149.4252.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)46.1546.6247.09
Year 2 PV (M)42.7343.6144.49
Year 3 PV (M)39.5640.7942.04
Year 4 PV (M)36.6338.1539.71
Year 5 PV (M)33.9135.6737.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)960.261,010.261,062.33
Equity Value (M)1,159.241,215.101,273.17
Shares Outstanding (M)93.2793.2793.27
Fair Value$12.43$13.03$13.65
Upside / Downside-61.28%-59.42%-57.48%

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