Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AK Medical Holdings Limited (1789.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.82 - $86.06$34.44
Multi-Stage$9.29 - $10.16$9.72
Blended Fair Value$22.08
Current Price$5.46
Upside304.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.47%4.18%0.040.050.020.030.070.030.030.070.040.09
YoY Growth---25.05%156.69%-34.70%-51.32%134.45%0.43%-56.23%45.84%-48.78%219.97%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.98%0.25%0.61%0.60%0.37%0.75%2.64%1.90%3.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)484.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)376.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.8160.5136.31
Cash Retained (M)376.46376.46376.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.81-60.51-36.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)279.64315.95340.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,118.411,118.411,118.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$16.82$34.44$86.06
Upside / Downside208.14%530.83%1,476.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)484.07515.40548.77584.29622.12662.39682.26
Payout Ratio22.23%35.78%49.34%62.89%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.61184.44270.75367.48475.58596.15631.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)169.73171.34172.95
Year 2 PV (M)229.30233.66238.07
Year 3 PV (M)286.39294.62302.99
Year 4 PV (M)341.09354.21367.71
Year 5 PV (M)393.47412.48432.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,968.799,402.099,851.99
Equity Value (M)10,388.7710,868.4111,365.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,118.411,118.411,118.41
Fair Value$9.29$9.72$10.16
Upside / Downside70.13%77.98%86.13%

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