Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.58 - $22.27$19.50
Multi-Stage$19.46 - $21.30$20.36
Blended Fair Value$19.93
Current Price$69.19
Upside-71.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.490.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,810.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,508.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,302.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,162.001,351.25810.75
Cash Retained (M)9,302.009,302.009,302.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,162.00-1,351.25-810.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,140.007,950.758,491.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,106.693,106.693,106.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.302.562.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.302.562.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.783.043.22
WACC / Discount Rate14.45%14.45%14.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.58$19.50$22.27
Upside / Downside-76.04%-71.81%-67.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,810.0010,701.9010,594.8810,488.9310,384.0410,280.2010,588.61
Payout Ratio13.95%29.16%44.37%59.58%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,508.003,120.684,700.956,249.317,766.239,252.189,794.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate14.45%14.45%14.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,699.052,726.592,754.13
Year 2 PV (M)3,516.483,588.613,661.48
Year 3 PV (M)4,043.114,168.154,295.74
Year 4 PV (M)4,345.664,525.764,711.41
Year 5 PV (M)4,477.664,710.824,953.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,385.1643,540.1845,784.05
Equity Value (M)60,467.1163,260.1166,160.40
Shares Outstanding (M)3,106.693,106.693,106.69
Fair Value$19.46$20.36$21.30
Upside / Downside-71.87%-70.57%-69.22%

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