Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hikari Food Service Co Ltd (138A.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,161.11 - $1,776.43$1,448.67
Multi-Stage$2,475.66 - $2,726.07$2,598.40
Blended Fair Value$2,023.54
Current Price$2,386.00
Upside-15.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)128.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.6816.059.63
Cash Retained (M)88.7988.7988.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.68-16.05-9.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.1172.7479.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.990.990.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.6273.3379.80
LTM Dividend per Share39.9339.9339.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.6273.3379.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend103.55113.26119.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,161.11$1,448.67$1,776.43
Upside / Downside-51.34%-39.28%-25.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)128.41127.12125.85124.59123.35122.11125.78
Payout Ratio30.85%42.68%54.51%66.34%78.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6154.2568.6082.6596.42109.90116.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.3250.8351.34
Year 2 PV (M)59.0060.2161.43
Year 3 PV (M)65.9367.9670.04
Year 4 PV (M)71.3274.2877.32
Year 5 PV (M)75.3979.3283.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,133.902,245.022,360.71
Equity Value (M)2,455.852,577.612,704.26
Shares Outstanding (M)0.990.990.99
Fair Value$2,475.66$2,598.40$2,726.07
Upside / Downside3.76%8.90%14.25%

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