Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $148.56 - $394.08 | $227.16 |
| Multi-Stage | $103.48 - $112.96 | $108.13 |
| Blended Fair Value | $167.65 | |
| Current Price | $309.74 | |
| Upside | -45.87% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.35% | 8.94% | 2.08 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.19 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.02 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 10.94% | 10.27% | 9.57% | 12.84% | 8.19% | 6.39% | 6.76% | 3.86% | 5.71% | 15.42% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.60% | 0.76% | 0.89% | 0.89% | 1.10% | 1.56% | 1.51% | 1.63% | 1.90% | 2.29% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,601.20 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 631.30 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 969.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 320.24 | 200.15 | 120.09 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 969.90 | 969.90 | 969.90 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -320.24 | -200.15 | -120.09 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 649.66 | 769.75 | 849.81 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 252.83 | 252.83 | 252.83 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.57 | 3.04 | 3.36 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.57 | 3.04 | 3.36 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.07 | 5.54 | 5.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $148.56 | $227.16 | $394.08 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.04% | -26.66% | 27.23% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,601.20 | 1,705.28 | 1,816.12 | 1,934.17 | 2,059.89 | 2,193.78 | 2,259.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 39.43% | 49.54% | 59.66% | 69.77% | 79.89% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 631.30 | 844.82 | 1,083.43 | 1,349.48 | 1,645.55 | 1,974.40 | 2,090.13 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 767.09 | 774.37 | 781.64 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 893.25 | 910.26 | 927.43 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,010.24 | 1,039.24 | 1,068.79 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,118.55 | 1,161.57 | 1,205.81 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,218.61 | 1,277.47 | 1,338.59 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 21,155.12 | 22,176.92 | 23,237.83 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,162.87 | 27,339.83 | 28,560.09 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 252.83 | 252.83 | 252.83 |
| Fair Value | $103.48 | $108.13 | $112.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -66.59% | -65.09% | -63.53% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMBC | Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. | 1.61% | $0.94 | 17.19% |
| VIRC | Virco Mfg. Corporation | 1.61% | $0.10 | 41.34% |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.67 | 22.53% |
| IVT | InvenTrust Properties Corp. | 1.60% | $0.45 | 29.49% |
| KBR | KBR, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.65 | 21.84% |
| OBK | Origin Bancorp, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.60 | 31.45% |
| TNC | Tennant Company | 1.60% | $1.18 | 39.96% |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. | 1.59% | $2.03 | 27.33% |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp, Inc. | 1.59% | $0.08 | 35.84% |
| 0HPW.L | Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 1.58% | $3.49 | 44.54% |
| CCF | Chase Corporation | 1.58% | $2.01 | 57.26% |
| MSIF | MSC Income Fund, Inc. | 1.58% | $0.21 | 12.72% |
| PRI | Primerica, Inc. | 1.58% | $4.10 | 18.44% |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 1.57% | $2.82 | 44.28% |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | 1.57% | $4.79 | 51.11% |
| MRO | Marathon Oil Corporation | 1.57% | $0.45 | 19.02% |
| NEU | NewMarket Corporation | 1.57% | $10.82 | 22.69% |
| PSMT | PriceSmart, Inc. | 1.57% | $1.93 | 39.29% |
| TFSL | TFS Financial Corporation | 1.57% | $0.21 | 65.45% |
| UFPI | UFP Industries, Inc. | 1.57% | $1.44 | 25.79% |
| 0M3Q.L | Zoetis Inc. | 1.56% | $1.95 | 32.55% |
| 0K92.L | Northrop Grumman Corporation | 1.55% | $8.80 | 31.43% |
| 0QZ5.L | Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | 1.55% | $1.25 | 28.62% |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | 1.55% | $2.11 | 51.98% |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | 1.55% | $1.32 | 13.96% |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | 1.55% | $2.65 | 40.30% |
| 0HQW.L | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 1.54% | $2.48 | 50.26% |
| 0J76.L | Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | 1.54% | $5.36 | 37.08% |
| BHE | Benchmark Electronics, Inc. | 1.54% | $0.68 | 65.62% |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza, Inc. | 1.54% | $6.54 | 37.90% |
| GRC | The Gorman-Rupp Company | 1.54% | $0.74 | 38.69% |
| DFS | Discover Financial Services | 1.53% | $3.06 | 16.08% |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial, Inc. | 1.53% | $0.59 | 16.67% |
| JMSB | John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. | 1.52% | $0.30 | 29.07% |
| 0J3H.L | The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | 1.51% | $2.06 | 16.53% |
| TRV | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | 1.51% | $4.29 | 16.63% |
| CISMX | Clarkston Partners Fund Institutional Class | 1.50% | $0.19 | 32.74% |
| FCAP | First Capital, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.88 | 28.53% |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.26 | 22.66% |
| OBT | Orange County Bancorp, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.43 | 15.62% |
| OSK | Oshkosh Corporation | 1.50% | $1.99 | 19.24% |
| SAIC | Science Applications International Corporation | 1.50% | $1.51 | 19.14% |
| FUL | H.B. Fuller Company | 1.49% | $0.90 | 43.28% |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 1.48% | $0.41 | 14.04% |
| FRBA | First Bank | 1.48% | $0.24 | 14.40% |
| ANDE | The Andersons, Inc. | 1.47% | $0.78 | 36.39% |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp, Inc. | 1.47% | $0.40 | 25.40% |
| WM | Waste Management, Inc. | 1.47% | $3.22 | 50.78% |
| ATR | AptarGroup, Inc. | 1.45% | $1.78 | 28.44% |
| CHX | ChampionX Corporation | 1.45% | $0.37 | 24.70% |