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Definitive Analysis

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Tiangong International Company Limited (0826.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.66 - $4.23$3.37
Multi-Stage$5.78 - $6.36$6.06
Blended Fair Value$4.72
Current Price$1.83
Upside157.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.61%5.51%0.060.040.060.080.050.030.040.010.010.04
YoY Growth--63.43%-39.27%-20.02%54.26%47.87%-9.48%352.70%48.40%-84.53%0.36%
Dividend Yield--3.38%1.95%2.37%1.94%1.68%1.14%2.25%0.79%0.61%6.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)713.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)449.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)142.7789.2353.54
Cash Retained (M)449.21449.21449.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-142.77-89.23-53.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.44359.97395.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,746.592,746.592,746.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Fair Value$2.66$3.37$4.23
Upside / Downside45.28%84.42%131.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)713.85711.24708.65706.06703.48700.91721.94
Payout Ratio37.07%47.66%58.24%68.83%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.64338.97412.74485.97558.67630.82667.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Year 1 PV (M)315.53318.73321.93
Year 2 PV (M)357.64364.93372.29
Year 3 PV (M)391.99404.03416.32
Year 4 PV (M)419.47436.74454.54
Year 5 PV (M)440.90463.70487.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,936.8714,657.8315,408.32
Equity Value (M)15,862.3916,645.9617,460.84
Shares Outstanding (M)2,746.592,746.592,746.59
Fair Value$5.78$6.06$6.36
Upside / Downside215.59%231.18%247.39%

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