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Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited (0133.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.49 - $19.26$15.63
Multi-Stage$19.57 - $21.51$20.52
Blended Fair Value$18.08
Current Price$1.88
Upside861.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%7.18%0.120.070.140.080.070.070.110.060.060.06
YoY Growth--71.43%-50.00%75.00%14.29%0.00%-36.36%83.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.63%7.14%13.33%6.67%5.83%5.34%9.09%3.61%4.03%3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5725.3615.21
Cash Retained (M)173.90173.90173.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.57-25.36-15.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.33148.55158.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$12.49$15.63$19.26
Upside / Downside564.19%731.63%924.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.85204.04205.24206.45207.67208.89215.15
Payout Ratio14.27%29.41%44.56%59.71%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.9460.0291.46123.27155.45188.00199.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)54.9855.5356.08
Year 2 PV (M)76.7478.2979.85
Year 3 PV (M)94.7497.62100.56
Year 4 PV (M)109.44113.90118.50
Year 5 PV (M)121.24127.45133.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,524.022,653.312,787.85
Equity Value (M)2,981.153,126.103,276.75
Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
Fair Value$19.57$20.52$21.51
Upside / Downside940.95%991.57%1,044.17%

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