Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. (003043.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.94 - $19.37$13.68
Multi-Stage$12.73 - $13.95$13.33
Blended Fair Value$13.51
Current Price$51.53
Upside-73.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.20%0.00%0.210.310.230.000.170.170.230.010.480.01
YoY Growth---30.90%33.33%40,131.73%-99.67%0.00%-25.00%2,620.83%-98.24%4,161.48%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%1.10%0.53%0.00%0.85%0.85%1.14%0.04%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.737.964.77
Cash Retained (M)33.0233.0233.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.73-7.96-4.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.2925.0728.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.35103.35103.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$9.94$13.68$19.37
Upside / Downside-80.71%-73.45%-62.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.6465.6867.7869.9572.1974.5076.74
Payout Ratio48.11%56.49%64.87%73.25%81.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6237.1043.9751.2458.9267.0570.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)34.2534.5934.92
Year 2 PV (M)37.4838.2138.96
Year 3 PV (M)40.3241.5142.73
Year 4 PV (M)42.8144.5146.26
Year 5 PV (M)44.9747.2249.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,115.931,171.611,229.48
Equity Value (M)1,315.771,377.651,441.91
Shares Outstanding (M)103.35103.35103.35
Fair Value$12.73$13.33$13.95
Upside / Downside-75.29%-74.13%-72.92%

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