Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao CHOHO Industrial Co., Ltd (003033.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$342.88 - $403.97$378.58
Multi-Stage$267.13 - $293.17$279.90
Blended Fair Value$329.24
Current Price$61.99
Upside431.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.94%18.87%0.700.680.460.410.020.280.330.460.080.11
YoY Growth--3.19%49.64%11.76%2,178.16%-93.69%-13.18%-28.87%473.38%-29.67%-8.87%
Dividend Yield--1.57%2.60%1.23%1.67%0.06%0.85%0.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)165.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.1820.7312.44
Cash Retained (M)112.32112.32112.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.18-20.73-12.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.1491.5899.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6681.6681.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$342.88$378.58$403.97
Upside / Downside453.13%510.72%551.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)165.88176.66188.14200.37213.40227.27234.09
Payout Ratio32.29%43.83%55.37%66.92%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.5677.43104.18134.08167.43204.54216.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.0677.7978.52
Year 2 PV (M)103.18105.15107.13
Year 3 PV (M)132.16135.95139.82
Year 4 PV (M)164.23170.55177.04
Year 5 PV (M)199.67209.32219.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,137.7822,158.7423,218.78
Equity Value (M)21,814.0922,857.5023,940.63
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6681.6681.66
Fair Value$267.13$279.90$293.17
Upside / Downside330.92%351.53%372.93%

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