Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuhai Bojay Electronics Co.,Ltd. (002975.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.30 - $9.17$7.69
Multi-Stage$10.59 - $11.65$11.11
Blended Fair Value$9.40
Current Price$60.32
Upside-84.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.37%0.00%0.050.020.340.680.340.080.020.350.000.00
YoY Growth--152.61%-94.41%-50.47%102.70%331.65%401.66%-95.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.05%0.79%1.57%0.40%0.13%0.06%1.40%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.2915.819.48
Cash Retained (M)100.96100.96100.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.29-15.81-9.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.6785.1591.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)149.18149.18149.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.30$7.69$9.17
Upside / Downside-89.56%-87.26%-84.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.44125.18123.93122.69121.46120.24123.85
Payout Ratio20.16%34.13%48.09%62.06%76.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.4942.7259.6076.1492.35108.22114.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)38.9539.3539.75
Year 2 PV (M)49.5650.5851.61
Year 3 PV (M)57.7459.5361.35
Year 4 PV (M)63.8666.5169.24
Year 5 PV (M)68.2571.8075.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,301.691,369.481,440.05
Equity Value (M)1,580.071,657.251,737.51
Shares Outstanding (M)149.18149.18149.18
Fair Value$10.59$11.11$11.65
Upside / Downside-82.44%-81.58%-80.69%

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