Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Pharscin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002907.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.60 - $35.08$29.88
Multi-Stage$6.54 - $7.16$6.84
Blended Fair Value$18.36
Current Price$16.32
Upside12.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.05%21.14%0.080.070.060.030.050.040.070.000.010.01
YoY Growth--17.67%30.92%71.96%-30.84%30.56%-49.89%2,594.63%-55.83%-29.36%-32.45%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.51%0.31%0.20%0.37%0.19%0.30%0.01%0.09%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.929.335.60
Cash Retained (M)18.2318.2318.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.92-9.33-5.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.318.9112.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$9.60$29.88$35.08
Upside / Downside-41.16%83.11%114.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.6178.4682.5286.7891.2795.9898.86
Payout Ratio75.56%78.45%81.34%84.22%87.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.3861.5567.1273.0979.5086.3891.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)57.6758.2358.78
Year 2 PV (M)58.9260.0561.20
Year 3 PV (M)60.1261.8663.64
Year 4 PV (M)61.2663.6566.11
Year 5 PV (M)62.3765.4268.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,430.102,549.002,672.52
Equity Value (M)2,730.432,858.222,990.84
Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
Fair Value$6.54$6.84$7.16
Upside / Downside-59.94%-58.07%-56.12%

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