Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Intelligent Transmission Co., Ltd. (002896.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.10 - $17.62$11.60
Multi-Stage$6.45 - $7.04$6.74
Blended Fair Value$9.17
Current Price$96.53
Upside-90.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.15%4.37%0.080.080.210.220.090.110.120.040.040.05
YoY Growth--0.73%-59.77%-3.35%152.59%-22.39%-6.56%229.46%-12.23%-25.94%-0.21%
Dividend Yield--0.13%0.31%1.01%1.89%0.81%1.22%0.73%0.19%0.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.569.105.46
Cash Retained (M)31.7031.7031.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.56-9.10-5.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1322.6026.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)173.28173.28173.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Fair Value$8.10$11.60$17.62
Upside / Downside-91.61%-87.98%-81.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.8277.2882.0187.0492.3798.02100.96
Payout Ratio56.47%63.18%69.88%76.59%83.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.1248.8257.3166.6676.9488.2293.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)44.1744.5945.01
Year 2 PV (M)46.9147.8148.72
Year 3 PV (M)49.3750.7952.24
Year 4 PV (M)51.5553.5455.59
Year 5 PV (M)53.4856.0758.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)872.71915.01958.94
Equity Value (M)1,118.191,167.821,219.27
Shares Outstanding (M)173.28173.28173.28
Fair Value$6.45$6.74$7.04
Upside / Downside-93.31%-93.02%-92.71%

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