Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luyan Pharma Co.,Ltd. (002788.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.50 - $157.64$147.73
Multi-Stage$22.72 - $24.85$23.76
Blended Fair Value$85.75
Current Price$8.08
Upside961.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.94%13.18%0.830.880.850.640.550.470.370.250.240.24
YoY Growth---4.79%2.73%32.39%17.34%15.67%28.71%44.60%8.15%-3.34%0.90%
Dividend Yield--10.26%10.59%9.14%7.07%7.39%6.52%4.24%2.34%1.38%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.5938.5023.10
Cash Retained (M)154.26154.26154.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.59-38.50-23.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.67115.76131.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)388.52388.52388.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.50$147.73$157.64
Upside / Downside648.76%1,728.38%1,851.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.96327.98349.30372.01396.19421.94434.60
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.70189.99230.35275.15324.80379.74402.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)176.55178.22179.89
Year 2 PV (M)198.90202.69206.51
Year 3 PV (M)220.77227.10233.56
Year 4 PV (M)242.16251.47261.05
Year 5 PV (M)263.09275.80288.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,723.878,096.938,484.28
Equity Value (M)8,825.339,232.229,654.29
Shares Outstanding (M)388.52388.52388.52
Fair Value$22.72$23.76$24.85
Upside / Downside181.13%194.09%207.54%

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