Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Aosaikang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002755.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.67 - $0.86$0.77
Multi-Stage$2.74 - $3.08$2.91
Blended Fair Value$1.84
Current Price$20.73
Upside-91.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-59.88%-20.48%0.000.000.100.200.220.120.001.140.000.01
YoY Growth--2.94%-98.79%-50.00%-9.09%83.33%22,718.04%-99.95%29,564.21%-53.33%-33.68%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%1.10%1.70%1.48%0.78%0.00%7.70%0.02%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3232.0719.24
Cash Retained (M)172.70172.70172.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.32-32.07-19.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)121.38140.63153.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)920.17920.17920.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate-20.75%-19.75%-18.75%
Fair Value$0.67$0.77$0.86
Upside / Downside-96.77%-96.29%-95.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.59205.91165.23132.60106.4085.3987.95
Payout Ratio32.69%44.16%55.62%67.08%78.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.8990.9291.9088.9483.5776.8581.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate-20.75%-19.75%-18.75%
Year 1 PV (M)84.9686.0387.11
Year 2 PV (M)80.2582.2984.35
Year 3 PV (M)72.5875.3678.21
Year 4 PV (M)63.7367.0070.41
Year 5 PV (M)54.7658.3062.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,164.462,304.522,451.73
Equity Value (M)2,520.742,673.512,833.84
Shares Outstanding (M)920.17920.17920.17
Fair Value$2.74$2.91$3.08
Upside / Downside-86.79%-85.98%-85.14%

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