Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changying Xinzhi Technology Co.,Ltd. (002664.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.88 - $26.95$25.26
Multi-Stage$17.12 - $18.77$17.93
Blended Fair Value$21.60
Current Price$30.88
Upside-30.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.64%11.57%0.210.060.060.100.080.070.060.060.050.10
YoY Growth--260.99%0.23%-39.92%26.03%14.29%7.69%8.33%17.65%-49.00%36.36%
Dividend Yield--1.26%0.36%0.43%0.73%0.64%0.51%0.43%0.21%0.20%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.106.934.16
Cash Retained (M)1.381.381.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.10-6.93-4.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.72-5.56-2.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.30409.30409.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.01-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.01-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate0.59%0.59%0.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.88$25.26$26.95
Upside / Downside-25.91%-18.20%-12.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.4859.0862.9267.0171.3776.0178.29
Payout Ratio97.52%96.01%94.51%93.01%91.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.1056.7359.4762.3265.3068.4172.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.59%0.59%0.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.8656.3956.92
Year 2 PV (M)57.6858.7759.88
Year 3 PV (M)59.5361.2462.98
Year 4 PV (M)61.4363.7966.22
Year 5 PV (M)63.3766.4369.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,708.507,032.527,368.95
Equity Value (M)7,006.377,339.157,684.57
Shares Outstanding (M)409.30409.30409.30
Fair Value$17.12$17.93$18.77
Upside / Downside-44.57%-41.93%-39.20%

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