Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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LanZhou Foci Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (002644.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.19 - $4.67$3.11
Multi-Stage$1.58 - $1.73$1.65
Blended Fair Value$2.38
Current Price$8.61
Upside-72.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.17%9.58%0.030.050.010.120.060.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth---42.90%293.89%-88.45%100.51%361.54%0.00%8.33%33.17%10.96%-35.09%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.67%0.12%1.06%0.84%0.15%0.14%0.11%0.08%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.827.384.43
Cash Retained (M)52.6252.6252.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.82-7.38-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.8145.2448.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)510.29510.29510.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.19$3.11$4.67
Upside / Downside-74.60%-63.86%-45.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.0862.9267.0171.3676.0080.9483.37
Payout Ratio10.93%26.74%42.56%58.37%74.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.4516.8228.5241.6656.3872.8577.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.1615.3015.44
Year 2 PV (M)23.1423.5824.03
Year 3 PV (M)30.4531.3232.21
Year 4 PV (M)37.1338.5640.02
Year 5 PV (M)43.2145.3047.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)656.55688.26721.19
Equity Value (M)805.64842.32880.36
Shares Outstanding (M)510.29510.29510.29
Fair Value$1.58$1.65$1.73
Upside / Downside-81.66%-80.83%-79.96%

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