Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co. Ltd. (002541.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.58 - $177.23$166.09
Multi-Stage$25.67 - $28.07$26.85
Blended Fair Value$96.47
Current Price$19.14
Upside404.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.41%42.91%0.970.260.250.330.250.180.030.030.030.03
YoY Growth--271.47%2.42%-21.98%31.12%40.20%438.16%30.00%-6.95%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.81%1.59%0.77%1.00%0.66%1.54%0.46%0.36%0.29%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)613.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)327.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)285.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.6176.6345.98
Cash Retained (M)285.69285.69285.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.61-76.63-45.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.08209.06239.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)687.91687.91687.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.58$166.09$177.23
Upside / Downside258.30%767.79%825.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)613.05652.90695.34740.54788.67839.94865.13
Payout Ratio53.40%60.72%68.04%75.36%82.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)327.36396.44473.11558.07652.07755.94800.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)368.41371.90375.39
Year 2 PV (M)408.58416.36424.22
Year 3 PV (M)447.88460.74473.84
Year 4 PV (M)486.33505.03524.27
Year 5 PV (M)523.94549.25575.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,420.7416,165.5616,938.90
Equity Value (M)17,655.8818,468.8419,312.14
Shares Outstanding (M)687.91687.91687.91
Fair Value$25.67$26.85$28.07
Upside / Downside34.10%40.27%46.68%

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