Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Feilong Auto Components Co., Ltd. (002536.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.70 - $121.00$113.40
Multi-Stage$86.80 - $95.24$90.94
Blended Fair Value$102.17
Current Price$24.37
Upside319.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.58%14.65%0.410.200.110.120.110.330.200.070.050.10
YoY Growth--108.71%72.27%-5.66%8.44%-65.98%60.29%187.02%33.70%-44.78%-7.68%
Dividend Yield--2.75%1.57%1.01%1.90%2.17%6.89%2.74%0.77%0.59%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)349.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)235.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.9443.7126.23
Cash Retained (M)114.43114.43114.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.94-43.71-26.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.4970.7288.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)574.79574.79574.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.70$113.40$121.00
Upside / Downside321.44%365.31%396.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)349.72372.45396.66422.44449.90479.15493.52
Payout Ratio67.28%71.82%76.37%80.91%85.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)235.29267.51302.92341.81384.47431.23456.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)270.32272.88275.45
Year 2 PV (M)309.33315.22321.17
Year 3 PV (M)352.72362.84373.16
Year 4 PV (M)400.92416.33432.19
Year 5 PV (M)454.42476.36499.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,104.8950,428.3852,840.78
Equity Value (M)49,892.5952,272.0254,741.90
Shares Outstanding (M)574.79574.79574.79
Fair Value$86.80$90.94$95.24
Upside / Downside256.18%273.17%290.80%

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