Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xizi Clean Energy Equipment Manufacturing Co.,ltd. (002534.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.08 - $48.42$45.37
Multi-Stage$26.18 - $28.78$27.46
Blended Fair Value$36.41
Current Price$16.95
Upside114.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.83%5.15%0.150.170.250.410.390.200.190.140.070.10
YoY Growth---10.05%-32.97%-38.45%6.64%97.30%2.95%39.44%105.30%-33.72%8.30%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.59%1.74%2.06%2.42%2.62%2.71%1.54%0.65%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)192.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.5824.1114.47
Cash Retained (M)24.4924.4924.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.58-24.11-14.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-14.090.3810.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.85774.85774.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate2.03%2.03%2.03%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$41.08$45.37$48.42
Upside / Downside142.38%167.67%185.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)192.89200.89209.21217.89226.92236.32243.41
Payout Ratio87.30%87.84%88.38%88.92%89.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.40176.47184.91193.75203.00212.69225.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.03%2.03%2.03%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)171.29172.95174.61
Year 2 PV (M)174.22177.62181.04
Year 3 PV (M)177.20182.40187.71
Year 4 PV (M)180.21187.31194.60
Year 5 PV (M)183.28192.34201.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,402.0320,360.9721,357.45
Equity Value (M)20,288.2421,273.5822,297.17
Shares Outstanding (M)774.85774.85774.85
Fair Value$26.18$27.46$28.78
Upside / Downside54.48%61.98%69.77%

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