Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co., Ltd. (002508.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$144.94 - $322.62$302.34
Multi-Stage$48.14 - $52.70$50.38
Blended Fair Value$176.36
Current Price$19.08
Upside824.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.32%27.20%1.500.500.500.500.500.800.750.390.310.17
YoY Growth--198.78%0.49%-0.17%-0.23%-37.50%6.67%95.00%24.99%80.23%26.58%
Dividend Yield--6.62%2.05%1.76%1.72%1.38%2.83%2.15%1.05%0.81%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,532.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)473.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,058.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)306.51191.57114.94
Cash Retained (M)1,058.881,058.881,058.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-306.51-191.57-114.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)752.37867.32943.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.72944.72944.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.421.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$144.94$302.34$322.62
Upside / Downside659.63%1,484.59%1,590.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,532.551,632.161,738.251,851.241,971.572,099.722,162.71
Payout Ratio30.91%42.73%54.54%66.36%78.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)473.66697.35948.111,228.531,541.401,889.752,000.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)648.98655.13661.28
Year 2 PV (M)821.14836.78852.57
Year 3 PV (M)990.201,018.631,047.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,156.201,200.661,246.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,319.171,382.881,449.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,540.6142,498.7444,531.81
Equity Value (M)45,476.3047,592.8249,788.68
Shares Outstanding (M)944.72944.72944.72
Fair Value$48.14$50.38$52.70
Upside / Downside152.29%164.03%176.21%

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