Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Hansen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002412.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.97 - $4.46$3.67
Multi-Stage$3.77 - $4.14$3.95
Blended Fair Value$3.81
Current Price$6.36
Upside-40.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.37%-28.59%0.010.310.010.010.090.020.030.320.000.00
YoY Growth---98.35%3,697.93%-38.13%-85.50%369.99%-28.15%-91.73%7,023.84%37.59%-97.76%
Dividend Yield--0.08%5.52%0.13%0.17%1.56%0.24%0.25%3.35%0.04%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.4021.5012.90
Cash Retained (M)170.39170.39170.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.40-21.50-12.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.99148.89157.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)502.79502.79502.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Fair Value$2.97$3.67$4.46
Upside / Downside-53.34%-42.22%-29.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.02174.61177.24179.91182.62185.38190.94
Payout Ratio0.94%18.76%36.57%54.38%72.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.6332.7564.8197.83131.83166.84176.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Year 1 PV (M)29.5429.8330.13
Year 2 PV (M)52.7353.7854.85
Year 3 PV (M)71.7973.9576.16
Year 4 PV (M)87.2690.7894.41
Year 5 PV (M)99.60104.65109.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,555.901,634.861,716.99
Equity Value (M)1,896.811,987.862,082.44
Shares Outstanding (M)502.79502.79502.79
Fair Value$3.77$3.95$4.14
Upside / Downside-40.68%-37.84%-34.88%

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