Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Yatai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002370.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.50 - $2.22$1.84
Multi-Stage$2.77 - $3.05$2.91
Blended Fair Value$2.38
Current Price$5.67
Upside-58.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.00%11.30%0.020.020.020.020.020.040.070.040.030.03
YoY Growth---27.86%18.83%4.06%-11.11%-44.05%-50.00%100.00%31.49%0.00%400.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.63%0.41%0.27%0.50%0.75%0.40%0.19%0.18%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9816.8610.12
Cash Retained (M)97.5297.5297.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.98-16.86-10.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.5480.6687.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)727.51727.51727.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.50$1.84$2.22
Upside / Downside-73.62%-67.51%-60.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.89133.55132.21130.89129.58128.28132.13
Payout Ratio27.70%40.16%52.62%65.08%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.3753.6469.5785.18100.48115.45122.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)49.2949.7950.30
Year 2 PV (M)58.7559.9661.17
Year 3 PV (M)66.1168.1570.24
Year 4 PV (M)71.6574.6277.69
Year 5 PV (M)75.6679.6083.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,696.951,785.321,877.33
Equity Value (M)2,018.422,117.452,220.42
Shares Outstanding (M)727.51727.51727.51
Fair Value$2.77$2.91$3.05
Upside / Downside-51.07%-48.67%-46.17%

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