Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Senyuan Electric Co., Ltd. (002358.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.38 - $22.85$21.41
Multi-Stage$12.40 - $13.62$13.00
Blended Fair Value$17.20
Current Price$4.94
Upside248.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.71%2.60%0.150.130.120.130.130.260.280.170.160.19
YoY Growth--17.89%4.15%-4.86%-4.84%-48.95%-6.92%63.60%7.15%-14.66%63.57%
Dividend Yield--2.62%3.10%2.49%4.19%3.68%4.41%1.89%1.00%0.75%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.3712.737.64
Cash Retained (M)25.6925.6925.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.37-12.73-7.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.3212.9618.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)870.00870.00870.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Fair Value$19.38$21.41$22.85
Upside / Downside292.40%333.33%362.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.83106.42111.22116.24121.49126.97130.78
Payout Ratio74.78%77.82%80.87%83.91%86.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.1482.8289.9497.54105.64114.27120.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Year 1 PV (M)80.2681.0481.81
Year 2 PV (M)84.4786.1287.77
Year 3 PV (M)88.7891.3894.03
Year 4 PV (M)93.1996.84100.60
Year 5 PV (M)97.70102.51107.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,342.1110,851.4211,380.60
Equity Value (M)10,786.5211,309.3011,852.32
Shares Outstanding (M)870.00870.00870.00
Fair Value$12.40$13.00$13.62
Upside / Downside150.98%163.14%175.78%

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