Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Focus Technology Co., Ltd. (002315.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.62 - $65.77$43.67
Multi-Stage$22.74 - $24.81$23.76
Blended Fair Value$33.71
Current Price$48.35
Upside-30.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.12%15.38%1.550.880.770.480.560.370.370.370.370.30
YoY Growth--75.30%14.09%60.77%-14.22%51.55%-1.16%0.91%0.26%25.00%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--3.60%2.47%3.31%3.14%2.34%2.48%3.07%2.26%1.63%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)509.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)174.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.9663.7238.23
Cash Retained (M)335.31335.31335.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.96-63.72-38.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.35271.58297.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.16317.16317.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.62$43.67$65.77
Upside / Downside-36.67%-9.69%36.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)509.79542.92578.21615.80655.82698.45719.41
Payout Ratio34.23%45.38%56.54%67.69%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)174.48246.38326.90416.84517.09628.61665.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)222.02224.13226.23
Year 2 PV (M)265.45270.51275.61
Year 3 PV (M)305.02313.77322.69
Year 4 PV (M)340.96354.07367.56
Year 5 PV (M)373.51391.56410.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,705.525,981.106,267.23
Equity Value (M)7,212.487,535.137,869.61
Shares Outstanding (M)317.16317.16317.16
Fair Value$22.74$23.76$24.81
Upside / Downside-52.97%-50.86%-48.68%

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