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Definitive Analysis

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Tibet Cheezheng Tibetan Medicine Co., Ltd. (002287.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.80 - $226.34$92.70
Multi-Stage$24.41 - $26.71$25.54
Blended Fair Value$59.12
Current Price$26.21
Upside125.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.16%7.11%0.520.380.580.330.340.310.310.290.310.29
YoY Growth--36.63%-33.91%73.65%-2.93%11.49%-0.01%5.13%-4.88%5.40%11.14%
Dividend Yield--2.31%1.75%2.30%1.16%1.44%1.54%1.30%1.18%0.81%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)488.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.4876.5545.93
Cash Retained (M)488.39488.39488.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.48-76.55-45.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)365.90411.83442.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)538.12538.12538.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.80$92.70$226.34
Upside / Downside70.93%253.69%763.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.42652.23694.63739.78787.86839.07864.25
Payout Ratio20.25%34.20%48.15%62.10%76.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.04223.08334.48459.41599.18755.17799.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)205.29207.24209.19
Year 2 PV (M)283.26288.66294.11
Year 3 PV (M)358.05368.33378.80
Year 4 PV (M)429.74446.27463.27
Year 5 PV (M)498.43522.51547.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,361.8611,910.6412,480.42
Equity Value (M)13,136.6413,743.6414,373.29
Shares Outstanding (M)538.12538.12538.12
Fair Value$24.41$25.54$26.71
Upside / Downside-6.86%-2.56%1.91%

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