Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai SK Petroleum & Chemical Equipment Corporation Ltd. (002278.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.80 - $1.12$0.96
Multi-Stage$1.40 - $1.53$1.46
Blended Fair Value$1.21
Current Price$9.27
Upside-86.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.98%-6.46%0.060.010.050.050.050.050.000.000.000.09
YoY Growth--331.37%-71.71%2.50%-2.82%0.00%2,966.01%194.04%-6.42%-99.33%-25.75%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.29%0.91%0.79%0.84%0.89%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.545.963.58
Cash Retained (M)22.8922.8922.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.54-5.96-3.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.3616.9319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)361.89361.89361.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-3.37%-2.37%-1.37%
Fair Value$0.80$0.96$1.12
Upside / Downside-91.38%-89.66%-87.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.6846.5545.4544.3743.3242.3043.57
Payout Ratio51.99%59.59%67.19%74.80%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7927.7430.5433.1935.7038.0740.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-3.37%-2.37%-1.37%
Year 1 PV (M)25.1025.3625.62
Year 2 PV (M)25.0125.5326.05
Year 3 PV (M)24.6025.3726.15
Year 4 PV (M)23.9424.9525.98
Year 5 PV (M)23.1024.3225.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)383.74404.01425.13
Equity Value (M)505.49529.54554.54
Shares Outstanding (M)361.89361.89361.89
Fair Value$1.40$1.46$1.53
Upside / Downside-84.93%-84.21%-83.47%

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