Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd. (002154.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.01 - $43.61$40.86
Multi-Stage$24.42 - $26.80$25.59
Blended Fair Value$33.23
Current Price$4.05
Upside720.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.73%17.67%0.330.210.480.180.000.090.030.030.050.06
YoY Growth--58.04%-56.58%165.20%0.00%-100.00%259.61%-20.89%-27.90%-19.41%-12.89%
Dividend Yield--8.04%3.52%9.39%4.69%0.00%3.03%0.63%1.09%0.97%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.1339.4623.67
Cash Retained (M)239.76239.76239.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.13-39.46-23.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)176.63200.30216.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,439.661,439.661,439.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.01$40.86$43.61
Upside / Downside813.85%909.00%976.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.66336.18358.03381.30406.08432.48445.45
Payout Ratio24.04%37.24%50.43%63.62%76.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.90125.18180.54242.57311.91389.23412.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)120.50121.64122.79
Year 2 PV (M)167.30170.49173.71
Year 3 PV (M)216.39222.60228.93
Year 4 PV (M)267.85278.15288.74
Year 5 PV (M)321.76337.30353.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,061.6335,706.8237,414.98
Equity Value (M)35,155.4336,837.0038,582.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,439.661,439.661,439.66
Fair Value$24.42$25.59$26.80
Upside / Downside502.95%531.79%561.72%

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