Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Haisum Engineering Co., Ltd. (002116.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.69 - $32.21$21.10
Multi-Stage$20.00 - $21.94$20.95
Blended Fair Value$21.03
Current Price$10.13
Upside107.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.12%8.22%0.270.170.130.080.060.230.200.180.270.14
YoY Growth--53.74%32.62%70.63%23.45%-72.85%13.90%10.00%-32.87%100.31%12.11%
Dividend Yield--2.67%1.65%1.20%0.77%0.96%3.02%1.77%1.92%1.77%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)356.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)144.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.3544.5926.76
Cash Retained (M)212.49212.49212.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.35-44.59-26.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)141.15167.90185.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)458.55458.55458.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Fair Value$14.69$21.10$32.21
Upside / Downside45.01%108.31%217.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)356.74367.78379.16390.89402.99415.46427.92
Payout Ratio40.43%50.35%60.26%70.17%80.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)144.25185.17228.48274.30322.74373.91395.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Year 1 PV (M)172.31174.00175.68
Year 2 PV (M)197.85201.75205.68
Year 3 PV (M)221.04227.59234.28
Year 4 PV (M)242.01251.63261.53
Year 5 PV (M)260.91273.94287.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,075.538,478.858,898.12
Equity Value (M)9,169.649,607.7610,062.79
Shares Outstanding (M)458.55458.55458.55
Fair Value$20.00$20.95$21.94
Upside / Downside97.41%106.84%116.63%

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