Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. (002075.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.69 - $6.45$3.98
Multi-Stage$4.79 - $5.26$5.02
Blended Fair Value$4.50
Current Price$5.62
Upside-19.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%7.11%0.090.050.080.100.100.030.030.000.000.01
YoY Growth--78.19%-37.50%-20.00%-0.59%233.52%-0.04%3,149.18%-73.71%-73.65%-70.11%
Dividend Yield--1.54%1.10%1.91%1.75%1.11%0.33%0.29%0.01%0.02%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.6636.0421.62
Cash Retained (M)166.38166.38166.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.66-36.04-21.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.72130.34144.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,209.772,209.772,209.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate5.35%5.35%5.35%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$2.69$3.98$6.45
Upside / Downside-52.15%-29.14%14.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.30295.25302.37309.66317.13324.78334.52
Payout Ratio42.29%51.83%61.37%70.92%80.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.92153.04185.58219.60255.16292.30309.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.35%5.35%5.35%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)143.85145.27146.69
Year 2 PV (M)163.97167.22170.50
Year 3 PV (M)182.38187.83193.39
Year 4 PV (M)199.19207.16215.38
Year 5 PV (M)214.49225.28236.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,674.5210,161.0110,666.88
Equity Value (M)10,578.4011,093.7711,629.32
Shares Outstanding (M)2,209.772,209.772,209.77
Fair Value$4.79$5.02$5.26
Upside / Downside-14.82%-10.67%-6.36%

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