Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hongrun Construction Group Co., Ltd. (002062.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.55 - $6.93$4.89
Multi-Stage$18.15 - $20.11$19.11
Blended Fair Value$12.00
Current Price$10.00
Upside20.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.11%21.53%0.170.090.090.110.050.050.050.210.070.07
YoY Growth--79.35%0.00%-16.67%140.00%0.00%0.00%-77.82%215.59%0.00%180.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%2.25%1.75%2.17%1.08%1.02%1.04%4.70%1.05%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.3834.6120.77
Cash Retained (M)103.05103.05103.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.38-34.61-20.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.6768.4482.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,172.871,172.871,172.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Fair Value$3.55$4.89$6.93
Upside / Downside-64.50%-51.09%-30.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276.91266.03255.58245.54235.89226.62233.42
Payout Ratio62.78%68.23%73.67%79.11%84.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.86181.51188.29194.25199.46203.96215.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)179.39181.27183.16
Year 2 PV (M)183.91187.80191.73
Year 3 PV (M)187.52193.50199.61
Year 4 PV (M)190.30198.43206.83
Year 5 PV (M)192.32202.65213.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,359.0721,452.5622,592.55
Equity Value (M)21,292.5122,416.2323,587.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,172.871,172.871,172.87
Fair Value$18.15$19.11$20.11
Upside / Downside81.54%91.12%101.11%

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