Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sinomach Precision Industry Co.,Ltd. (002046.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.47 - $33.11$19.07
Multi-Stage$8.75 - $9.55$9.14
Blended Fair Value$14.11
Current Price$26.51
Upside-46.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS76.70%11.92%0.240.230.160.080.080.010.090.080.050.06
YoY Growth--4.94%40.76%100.74%1.29%473.46%-84.79%18.19%40.81%-1.47%-28.19%
Dividend Yield--1.53%2.17%1.36%0.67%1.06%0.24%1.02%0.87%0.38%0.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.2835.1821.11
Cash Retained (M)152.06152.06152.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.28-35.18-21.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.78116.89130.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)529.64529.64529.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.47$19.07$33.11
Upside / Downside-52.96%-28.05%24.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.41299.70319.19339.93362.03385.56397.13
Payout Ratio45.96%54.77%63.58%72.39%81.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.35164.15202.93246.06293.94347.00367.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)149.05150.47151.88
Year 2 PV (M)167.32170.51173.72
Year 3 PV (M)184.22189.51194.89
Year 4 PV (M)199.82207.51215.41
Year 5 PV (M)214.19224.54235.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,719.783,899.454,086.00
Equity Value (M)4,634.394,841.985,057.18
Shares Outstanding (M)529.64529.64529.64
Fair Value$8.75$9.14$9.55
Upside / Downside-66.99%-65.51%-63.98%

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