Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yifan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002019.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.68 - $5.93$4.69
Multi-Stage$10.43 - $11.50$10.95
Blended Fair Value$7.82
Current Price$13.87
Upside-43.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%0.00%0.170.060.070.120.170.160.410.150.080.06
YoY Growth--168.84%-16.11%-37.58%-31.48%5.01%-60.16%173.73%82.37%47.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.54%0.53%0.79%0.85%1.01%2.99%0.68%0.49%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)162.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4750.9230.55
Cash Retained (M)244.48244.48244.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.47-50.92-30.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.00193.56213.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.901,168.901,168.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.68$4.69$5.93
Upside / Downside-73.50%-66.17%-57.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.37403.30399.27395.27391.32387.41399.03
Payout Ratio39.99%49.99%59.99%69.99%80.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)162.90201.61239.53276.67313.05348.67369.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)189.28191.22193.15
Year 2 PV (M)211.14215.47219.85
Year 3 PV (M)228.97236.06243.28
Year 4 PV (M)243.24253.32263.72
Year 5 PV (M)254.36267.61281.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,059.7911,635.6912,235.35
Equity Value (M)12,186.7912,799.3713,436.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.901,168.901,168.90
Fair Value$10.43$10.95$11.50
Upside / Downside-24.83%-21.05%-17.12%

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