Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hualan Biological Engineering Inc. (002007.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.97 - $9.81$7.68
Multi-Stage$7.57 - $8.29$7.92
Blended Fair Value$7.80
Current Price$15.92
Upside-50.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.67%7.25%0.260.310.220.310.310.210.150.220.130.19
YoY Growth---17.00%41.10%-29.19%-1.29%46.30%41.92%-30.67%70.75%-33.33%50.10%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.55%1.00%1.52%0.79%0.58%0.65%1.41%0.69%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)948.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)332.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)616.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.72118.5871.15
Cash Retained (M)616.21616.21616.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.72-118.58-71.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)426.48497.63545.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,827.921,827.921,827.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate1.67%2.67%3.67%
Fair Value$5.97$7.68$9.81
Upside / Downside-62.50%-51.76%-38.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)948.62973.96999.991,026.701,054.141,082.301,114.77
Payout Ratio35.04%46.03%57.02%68.02%79.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)332.41448.35570.24698.33832.86974.071,031.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate1.67%2.67%3.67%
Year 1 PV (M)408.29412.30416.32
Year 2 PV (M)472.89482.24491.68
Year 3 PV (M)527.37543.08559.10
Year 4 PV (M)572.76595.63619.17
Year 5 PV (M)610.02640.61672.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,245.6311,809.6512,396.08
Equity Value (M)13,836.9514,483.5115,154.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,827.921,827.921,827.92
Fair Value$7.57$7.92$8.29
Upside / Downside-52.45%-50.23%-47.92%

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