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Definitive Analysis

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Shin Hwa Dynamics Co., Ltd. (001770.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43,170.70 - $70,358.95$55,335.07
Multi-Stage$52,267.14 - $57,359.19$54,765.00
Blended Fair Value$55,050.03
Current Price$18,710.00
Upside194.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-3.97%99.9199.9199.9199.9199.9199.9199.91249.78349.69199.82
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-60.00%-28.57%75.00%33.33%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.52%0.30%0.32%0.42%0.62%0.44%1.14%1.34%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,667.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,545.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)933.42583.38350.03
Cash Retained (M)4,545.594,545.594,545.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-933.42-583.38-350.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,612.173,962.204,195.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.221.221.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,970.633,258.503,450.41
LTM Dividend per Share99.9199.9199.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,970.633,258.503,450.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend3,070.543,358.413,550.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Fair Value$43,170.70$55,335.07$70,358.95
Upside / Downside130.74%195.75%276.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,667.084,791.354,918.935,049.915,184.375,322.425,482.09
Payout Ratio2.60%20.08%37.56%55.04%72.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.49962.221,847.642,779.533,759.744,790.185,070.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)875.03883.63892.24
Year 2 PV (M)1,527.961,558.161,588.67
Year 3 PV (M)2,090.312,152.612,216.13
Year 4 PV (M)2,571.252,673.922,779.64
Year 5 PV (M)2,979.103,128.533,283.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,511.1356,195.2158,985.94
Equity Value (M)63,554.7866,592.0769,746.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1.221.221.22
Fair Value$52,267.14$54,765.00$57,359.19
Upside / Downside179.35%192.70%206.57%

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