Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hui Lyu Ecological Technology Groups Co.,Ltd. (001267.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.10 - $4.45$2.98
Multi-Stage$2.05 - $2.23$2.14
Blended Fair Value$2.56
Current Price$9.38
Upside-72.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.46%5.91%0.060.060.060.040.060.040.050.040.010.02
YoY Growth---0.73%-5.05%40.00%-21.61%59.01%-22.68%25.42%172.38%-18.85%-49.64%
Dividend Yield--0.64%1.48%0.89%0.72%0.95%0.59%0.77%0.61%0.23%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.9711.236.74
Cash Retained (M)22.2222.2222.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.97-11.23-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.2510.9915.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)784.47784.47784.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$2.10$2.98$4.45
Upside / Downside-77.56%-68.19%-52.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.8694.2798.90103.75108.85114.19117.62
Payout Ratio75.27%78.22%81.16%84.11%87.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.6473.7480.2787.2794.76102.78108.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)67.3568.0068.65
Year 2 PV (M)66.9768.2769.58
Year 3 PV (M)66.5168.4570.42
Year 4 PV (M)65.9768.5471.19
Year 5 PV (M)65.3568.5671.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,273.181,335.631,400.52
Equity Value (M)1,605.331,677.451,752.25
Shares Outstanding (M)784.47784.47784.47
Fair Value$2.05$2.14$2.23
Upside / Downside-78.18%-77.20%-76.19%

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