Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yunnan Tin Company Limited (000960.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.20 - $21.89$17.04
Multi-Stage$21.76 - $23.89$22.80
Blended Fair Value$19.92
Current Price$23.14
Upside-13.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.21%-0.92%0.510.120.110.470.410.390.450.350.370.41
YoY Growth--329.42%9.09%-77.11%16.83%2.93%-12.82%30.29%-6.19%-9.17%-26.96%
Dividend Yield--3.33%0.78%0.73%2.26%3.29%4.77%3.45%2.57%2.81%3.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,906.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,181.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)381.23238.27142.96
Cash Retained (M)1,181.451,181.451,181.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-381.23-238.27-142.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)800.22943.181,038.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,671.131,671.131,671.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Fair Value$13.20$17.04$21.89
Upside / Downside-42.95%-26.35%-5.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,906.161,930.141,954.421,979.012,003.902,029.112,089.99
Payout Ratio38.02%48.42%58.81%69.21%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.71934.481,149.431,369.631,595.181,826.201,933.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)863.21871.82880.43
Year 2 PV (M)980.771,000.441,020.30
Year 3 PV (M)1,079.531,112.161,145.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,161.421,208.451,256.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,228.201,290.691,355.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,047.0232,626.5834,269.77
Equity Value (M)36,360.1638,110.1339,928.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,671.131,671.131,671.13
Fair Value$21.76$22.80$23.89
Upside / Downside-5.97%-1.45%3.25%

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